White House Odds Watch
How often it updates
This publication updates once per hour. Each refresh pulls the latest prices from both Polymarket and Kalshi.
What prediction market it uses
The headline comes from Polymarket's "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" market, the deepest party-level market available: when this page was built it had roughly seven times as much money resting within two cents of the current price as Kalshi's equivalent. Kalshi's "2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)" market is shown alongside as a cross-check, and becomes the headline automatically if Polymarket can't be reached.
Methodology
Each probability is the midpoint between the best bid and best ask for the Democratic contract; the Republican figure is the remainder. Polymarket settles when the AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same party, while Kalshi settles on which party's candidate is inaugurated, so the two should agree in practice; any gap between them reflects differences between the two trading venues rather than different questions. These are market prices, not a polling model.
Democratic odds, last 90 days
Markets
| Market | Dem | Rep | Dem Last Wk | Dem Last Mt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (headline) | 67.5% | 32.5% | 64.5% | 64.5% |
| Kalshi | 65.5% | 34.5% | 59.5% | 58.5% |