Democratic House control
Democrats Win the US House
Likely Democratic Seats - 230
Updated: 2026-09-16T02:02:23 EDT
Share of House: 52.9%
How often it updates
This report updates once per hour. Each refresh runs the House forecast script and publishes an updated market-implied probability.
What prediction market it uses
The underlying data comes from Polymarket House district markets. This is a market-implied signal rather than a polling model.
Methodology
Starting from a base of safe Democratic seats, the model evaluates probabilities in competitive districts and estimates the chance Democrats win enough additional seats to reach a majority.
Trend
Summary
| Likely Democratic Seats | 230 |
|---|---|
| Seats Required for Majority | 218 |
| Solid Democratic Seats | 167 |
| Toss Ups above 50% D | 62 |
| Projected Democratic Seats | 230 |
| Likely Democratic Share | 52.87% |
| Total House Seats | 435 |
Tossup Races (CSV)
| District | Pct Likely Democrat Win | Last Wk | Last Mt |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AZ-1 | 73.0% | 73.0% | 74.0% |
| AZ-2 | 29.0% | 27.5% | 37.0% |
| AZ-3 | 98.2% | 98.2% | 97.5% |
| AZ-4 | 94.5% | 94.5% | 93.5% |
| AZ-5 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% |
| AZ-6 | 82.5% | 82.5% | 82.5% |
| AZ-7 | 95.5% | 95.5% | 95.5% |
| AZ-8 | 15.5% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| AZ-9 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| CA-1 | 96.9% | 96.9% | 93.5% |
| CA-2 | 96.0% | 93.5% | 93.5% |
| CA-3 | 95.5% | 94.5% | 93.5% |
| CA-4 | 96.2% | 96.0% | 95.5% |
| CA-5 | 6.6% | 5.2% | 11.0% |
| CA-13 | 91.5% | 94.0% | 89.5% |
| CA-22 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| CA-48 | 88.5% | 88.5% | 88.5% |
| CA-51 | 95.5% | 95.0% | 94.5% |
| CA-52 | 95.3% | 95.3% | 96.2% |
| CO-1 | 96.9% | 97.5% | 95.5% |
| CO-2 | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% |
| CO-3 | 33.5% | 34.5% | 35.5% |
| CO-4 | 35.5% | 32.5% | 36.5% |
| CO-5 | 34.0% | 31.0% | 28.0% |
| CO-6 | 94.5% | 94.5% | 94.5% |
| CO-7 | 93.5% | 93.5% | 93.5% |
| CO-8 | 74.5% | 78.0% | 73.0% |
| FL-7 | 33.0% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| FL-8 | 2.1% | 7.5% | 11.0% |
| FL-9 | 36.0% | 31.0% | 24.0% |
| FL-10 | 97.5% | 97.6% | 94.5% |
| FL-13 | 24.5% | 29.0% | 24.0% |
| FL-14 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 59.5% |
| FL-22 | 43.0% | 43.5% | 38.0% |
| FL-25 | 71.0% | 79.0% | 73.5% |
| FL-28 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| IN-1 | 93.5% | 93.5% | 83.5% |
| IN-2 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| IN-3 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| IN-4 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| IN-5 | 15.5% | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| IN-6 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| IN-7 | 97.2% | 96.5% | 95.5% |
| IN-8 | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| IN-9 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| IA-1 | 74.0% | 71.0% | 73.0% |
| IA-2 | 54.0% | 44.5% | 40.0% |
| IA-3 | 73.5% | 76.0% | 76.0% |
| IA-4 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| MI-4 | 44.0% | 45.0% | 51.5% |
| MI-7 | 51.5% | 51.0% | 62.0% |
| MI-8 | 92.0% | 92.5% | 93.5% |
| MI-10 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 62.0% |
| MI-11 | 96.5% | 96.5% | 96.5% |
| MI-12 | 95.9% | 95.7% | 94.5% |
| MI-13 | 97.6% | 96.7% | 96.8% |
| MT-1 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 36.5% |
| MT-2 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| NE-1 | 8.5% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
| NE-2 | 90.5% | 89.0% | 80.0% |
| NE-3 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| NV-1 | 94.5% | 90.5% | 89.5% |
| NH-1 | 89.2% | 89.0% | 86.2% |
| NH-2 | 92.7% | 92.8% | 93.0% |
| NJ-7 | 83.0% | 69.0% | 81.5% |
| NM-2 | 88.5% | 88.5% | 88.5% |
| NY-3 | 92.0% | 92.5% | 85.5% |
| NY-4 | 92.5% | 88.5% | 83.0% |
| NY-17 | 56.5% | 67.5% | 66.0% |
| NC-1 | 63.5% | 61.5% | 57.5% |
| NC-11 | 62.5% | 66.0% | 64.0% |
| NC-14 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
| ND-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| OH-1 | 87.0% | 85.7% | 91.5% |
| OH-2 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| OH-3 | 95.5% | 95.5% | 94.5% |
| OH-4 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| OH-5 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| OH-6 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| OH-7 | 78.5% | 77.5% | 76.5% |
| OH-8 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| OH-9 | 73.5% | 63.5% | 73.5% |
| OH-10 | 17.0% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| OH-11 | 98.5% | 98.5% | 96.4% |
| OH-12 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% |
| OH-13 | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% |
| OH-14 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| OH-15 | 20.5% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| OR-6 | 96.0% | 96.0% | 94.0% |
| PA-1 | 40.5% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| PA-2 | 94.5% | 94.5% | 95.0% |
| PA-7 | 74.5% | 80.5% | 76.0% |
| PA-8 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 53.5% |
| PA-10 | 78.5% | 78.0% | 78.5% |
| PA-11 | 2.7% | 0.9% | 8.5% |
| SD-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| TX-1 | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| TX-10 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.5% |
| TX-15 | 64.5% | 55.5% | 48.0% |
| TX-26 | 2.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% |
| TX-28 | 82.5% | 74.0% | 82.0% |
| TX-34 | 75.5% | 74.5% | 73.0% |
| VT-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VA-1 | 39.5% | 44.0% | 54.5% |
| VA-2 | 81.5% | 81.5% | 84.0% |
| WA-3 | 88.5% | 86.5% | 87.5% |
| WI-1 | 34.0% | 32.0% | 26.5% |
| WI-2 | 97.2% | 97.2% | 96.8% |
| WI-3 | 70.5% | 70.5% | 70.5% |
| WI-4 | 96.5% | 96.5% | 99.5% |
| WI-5 | 4.0% | 3.6% | 7.1% |
| WI-6 | 6.3% | 5.6% | 16.1% |
| WI-7 | 4.4% | 3.5% | 12.0% |
| WI-8 | 9.0% | 8.5% | 17.5% |